Monday, January 3, 2011

Computer Models Hinting At Midwest Storm.

Computer models have begun hinting at the possibility of a shortwave to come through the Midwest area next Tuesday into Wednesday.

The ECMWF, noted as a heavy hitter in the way of computer forecasting models, and the Navy's NOGAPS model are both showing the shortwave bring up precipitation into the Midwest.

The precipitation would be snow for the Midwest area.

The CMC model has a different low pressure tracking farther north and affecting the southern Midwest areas. I will explain it in the next post.
However, the CMC does not bring in the idea of a shortwave.

The GFS, also a major model, is showing a shortwave forming. However, the GFS prefers the shortwave to weaken as it moves through, bringing light to possibly moderate accumulations.

All in all, it's the ECMWF and NOGAPS versus GFS and CMC.

If I had to choose, I wouldn't want to because it's so far away. But I'll make a VERY VERY PRELIMINARY estimate.

I will say that, at this time, I would go along with a GFS/ECMWF mix and have the shortwave move through and slightly weaken.

IT IS STILL 8-10 days away.

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