Sunday, May 22, 2011

May 22 Moderate Risk Severe Weather

NE Oklahoma, Much of MO, Much of IL, WI, East IA are under a moderate risk.

Cold front and dryline located in Plains will use combined power to develop thunderstorms that will likely produce very large hail, potential tornadoes, and damaging winds in bowing segments, especially in NE IL.
Strengthening Lower Level Jet stream will allow for air mass recovery after last night's squall line. Moderate heating will lead to 2000-3000 j/kg of CAPE.
Potential does exist for numerous supercellular storms. West WI through Southeast MN and parts of Iowa will have a more substantial tornado threat (see image below)
Even Chicago, IL could see an isolated tornado, large hail and damaging winds.
CAPE up to 6000 j/kg could exist in a narrow corridor in the South Plains.
Potential will be very high for at least some instances of extremely large hail, as well as tornadoes and damaging winds.

Today's Hail Outlook

Today's Tornado Outlook

Today's Damaging Wind Outlook

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