May 24 Dangerous Severe Weather Forecast

Note: This is a special edition of today's severe weather forecast.
A high risk of severe weather is in effect for Oklahoma and South Central Kansas.

DISCUSSION
A strengthening mid level system accompanied by a 75kt mid level jet stream will enter the Plains region to produce thunderstorms.
By the late afternoon, a dryline will extend from central OK to central TX as a deepening upper level low moves across the Pains.
A warm front and outflow boundary combined will stretch into Southern KS, East OK into Arkansas. This system will provide the ingredients for a potentially significant and devastating tornado outbreak.
This event will happen from the afternoon into evening hours.

A regional outbreak of very strong and damaging winds, extremely large hail and potentially violent tornadoes is expected. The tornado threat will be enhanced as the powerful jet stream emerges into the Plains.
Some stronger storms are ongoing at this time across KS/NEB. However, later today, a cap will exist to suppress storm development in the warm sector and enhance instability.
By mid afternoon, dewpoints up to 70, very steep lapse rates and MLCAPE up to 4000 j/kg across parts of OK/KS.

As the jet stream emerges, the cap should weaken and storm initiation begin in late afternoon from central KS into central TX south along the dryline. Low level flow rapidly increasing to 60 kts will provide a more than ample breeding ground for supercells. As these storms rapidly become supercellular, wind profiles and shearing are extremely favorable for tornadoes, and these cells can be expected to do so.
There is potential for several large and significant tornadoes.

While storms in TX diminish as a cap takes over again, widespread severe weather will continue in KS/East OK/MO/AR.

Today's Hail Outlook

Today's damaging wind outlook

Today's Tornado Outlook