Monday, May 9, 2011

May 9-10 Severe Weather Write-Up

CAPE- A measure of instability. Values over 2000 are considered unstable. Values over 4000 are considered dangerously unstable.
Lifted Index (LI): Another measure of instability. The lower the numbers, the more unstable.

This is a write up for tonight's potentially severe storms into tomorrow.
Let's start with what the predicted CAPE values are. These images will all come at once.
Chance of CAPE above 4000 6 hours away.

CAPE forecast 6 hours away

CAPE Forecast 6 hours away
As you can see, on many images, the CAPE forecast actually maxes out the legend of CAPE values. Right now, it would appear that Missouri would have the most unstable atmosphere. However, these images are forecast for 7pm CDT tonight. That means the atmosphere will be destabilizing, and luckily, limited severe storms, if any storms, are expected.
Next up is another instability indicator called LI, or Lifted Index.
Below are more images of Lifted Index forecasts.
This image actually maxes out the legend again. However, again, this will be forecast for 7 pm CDT. Thus, there will likely not be nearly as bad storms as would be otherwise at, say 1 pm CDT.

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