Tuesday, June 14, 2011

June 14- Soundings indicative of strong storms to fire in Missouri tonight.

Provided by COD NEXLAB
CAPE- A measure of instability. The higher values indicate the more instability.
EHI- Energy Helicity Index. An indicator of spinning motion in the atmosphere that could produce rotation in storms. The higher values indicate more spinning potential.
CINH- A layer in the atmosphere that suppresses storms. When air is forced upwards to make instability, the rising air hits this 'cap' and sinks back down, thus stopping the ascension and storm potential.

A sounding taken from a site in South Missouri is indicating that, should the moderate cap in the atmosphere weaken, rotating supercells are on the menu for some places.
This sounding indicates the atmosphere is twisting and turning with an EHI of over 200, considered strong. CAPEs are well past 2000 j/kg and approaching 3000 j/kg.
Sounds like a pretty bad night, right?
So far, the cap is still in place and very persistent. Again, should the cap weaken, these storms are likely to burst.
There is a tornado watch in effect as well.
It is worth noting that this watch was issued at just before 4 pm CDT. It's been just over 4 hours since that watch was issued. While it does go until 11 pm, I do believe this signifies that the folks at the SPC believed that the cap would fade earlier before this time period. Since the cap is close enough to 0 that it should break at some point, I do believe the watch should be extended into the 1 am time period, should/if/when that cap break.

Happy Flag Day!

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