Friday, June 17, 2011

June 17- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system to the west of Central America. This system has become a bit better organized over the past several hours. There is certainly a window of opportunity for a tropical depression to form.
Infrared imagery indicates that the system in focus is very disorganized. There are strong bands of thunderstorms on Central America as well as to the west of this tropical system, which actually may take some energy away from the storm and disrupt circulation. However, I do not see that happening.
On this surface analysis from the OPC agency, we see the low pressure system responsible for this tropical cyclone potential for development just off the south coast of Mexico. I do anticipate this system to move to the northwest as we progress into the next couple days.
Ensembles for this tropical system indicate this storm staying much closer to land than Hurricane Adrian did, and thus more dangerous.
I do anticipate this system to create showers and storms on land of Mexico as it moves to the northwest. The consensus keeps the system close to land. However, when the models stop, it does appear that, should the system continue current forecast trends, Baja California could be in the path of this storm system.
Intensity forecasts for this storm system aren't impressive by any rate. The heavy majority consensus is to keep the storm in tropical storm strength. One model alone barely scrapes Category 1 strength. After about 3 days, this system drops off in a weakening state.

This storm system will be watched closely, and we will provide updates tomorrow morning as necessary.

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