Thursday, July 21, 2011

HurricanEye-July 21 Briefing

Hurricane Dora is currently a Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds of 140 MPH and minimum central pressure of 942 millibars. Dora is moving northwest at 13 MPH.
Dora's intensity forecasts indicate she will be weakening soon, which is a good solution as Dora is heading towards cooler waters.  Ensemble tracks pretty much go along with the NHC track. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for the Baja California or Mexico, but rough surf is expected.

Bret is currently a tropical storm with maximum winds at 40 MPH and central pressure of 1007 millibars. This does indicate Bret may be losing its strength in the inner cores of itself. Bret is moving northeast at 8 MPH. Intensity forecasts agree Bret will be losing strength, but all of them never actually bring Bret below 20 MPH. Bret is in cooler waters and is weakening. Ensemble tracks pretty much agree with the NHC forecast.

The development of Cindy was a major surprise to the meteorological community. NHC and ensemble tracks are in pretty good agreement, but the ensemble members carry the system out east and possibly turn it around back towards the south. Intensity forecasts aren't too impressive, but there is a small probability that Cindy will turn into a hurricane. Cindy's maximum winds are at 60 MPH, central pressure at 1002 millibars, moving northeast at 28 MPH.

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