The Weather Centre: July 3 Severe Weather Discussion

Sunday, July 3, 2011

July 3 Severe Weather Discussion

There is a slight risk of severe storms in the Montana area as a low pressure with a warm front moves into the area. Judging by how big the distance is, I would anticipate these storms to be more scattered. The Rapid Refresh may be trying to initiate a small cluster of cells just a bit south of the current slight risk area.
I do believe the slight risk area should be extended a bit farther south, potentially to the Montana border to suffice for the solution the Rapid Refresh is pumping out.
The main threats for that area will be damaging winds and hail. Right now, I wouldn't anticipate hail being the bigger deal, but in the stronger storms, I would expect to find some small hailstones.

A cold front will stretch across South Illinois, bending West Northwest into the Ohio Valley, where that front will create some showers and precipitation. In the Missouri area, where the cold front switches to a warm boundary, is where there is a low threat of some convection.
I do not believe hail will occur with these storms, but the strongest storms could produce some brief gusty winds and brief downpours.

Some thunderstorms are also possible in Arizona, where a low pressure offshore will create that chance. I do not anticipate any severe weather to occur, but brief downpours are not off the table.

Up in the Northeast, a cold front will sweep the area only a brief time after a waning warm front comes over the area. Because the cold front will be so quick to enter the area where the warm front passed, and because the warm front is so far away from the warm Gulf air, there won't be a favorable environment for severe convection. However, regular showers and storms appear likely as the two fronts pass through the region.