Sunday, August 28, 2011

August 28: Invest 92 could create more tropical worries for the East Coast in early September

Hour 192 of ECMWF
This is the ECMWF model at hour 192. Anything beyond hour 120 in any model could be inaccurate. So take this information with a fairly large grain of salt. Anyways, the ECMWF is portraying a tropical cyclone to approach the East Coast. Going WNW towards the East Coast, I would expect this system to go OTS (out to sea).
Hour 216
At Hour 216 of the Euro (ECMWF), the system continues a WNW movement. Now, the farther it goes on this WNW movement increases the chance of a landfall. That's right, a landfall on the East Coast. The reason this doesn't happen often is because of many factors that make tropical systems suddenly turn NE, then get thrown out to sea. But again, the more time this system spends going WNW decreases the chances of it going OTS.
Hour 240
This is where it gets concerning. At that point in time - Hour 240 - Invest 92 appears to be too far west to be effectively thrown out to sea. This could spell catastrophe if that doesn't happen, as the ECMWF appears to be gradually strengthening this system at this stage. We have detailed an outline of what this system would have to do to go OTS (out to sea).
Look at just how difficult it would be for this system to go out to sea without affecting land to a certain degree. This is not out of the question, but with every frame of this model run pushing this storm WNW continues to slice off a chance of an OTS ending for this storm.

(Note: It has been discovered that the ECMWF is more accurate than the GFS. Also, I had to regain my energy from the Irene frenzy yesterday, thus the low posting.)
(Note: Anything beyond 120 hours could be inaccurate, no matter what model is used.)

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