ECMWF considerably north with Invest 92L

This is a special update for Invest 92L.
The ECMWF, proven to be more accurate than the GFS, has taken a dramatic turn north with Invest 92L, sending it out to sea instead of potentially impacting the East Coast. But first, let's take a look at the invest itself.

Invest 92 is quite a vigorous tropical wave that has barely moved offshore of Africa. Already it has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. Right now, it is moving westward. It does appear that the ECMWF may have initiated a bit north of where the system is now. While that may not seem like a huge deal, in the long run it could determine where the system goes.

Hour 168

So here is hour 168 of the ECMWF. The ECMWF itself has moved north since the 0z run early this morning. However, the model still keeps Invest 92 strong and positions itself into a hurricane Category 1 at minimum. Wind speeds are expected to top 100 knots, but this is considered long range model guidance and should not be taken too seriously at this stage.

Hour 192

At hour 192, Invest 92L has strengthened in size and wind speed, indicating the system is feeding off of what the Atlantic has to offer. Again, this is north of the 0z run.

In these last 2 frames, we see the transition of how the hurricane begins to swerve OTS (out to sea) in a NE direction.

We will monitor this through the night and brief you tomorrow morning.