Friday, September 2, 2011

East Coast Hurricane Katia Threat Being Realized

The threat of something happening on the East Coast is being realized by the models and us forecasters as we watch Katia trudge her way WNW. The reason is say the threat of 'something' happening is because I don't want to make predictions of a landfall.
Here's the NHC forecast as of this evening.
What I find interesting is that the NHC is curving more WNW after going NW with Katia. That could, emphasize 'could', play an important role in how the East Coast will be affected by Katia. I guess that the main thing is: If Katia reaches 70W-75W without going above 30N, the chances of an East Coast landfall probably increase. By how much is yet to be seen, but that is what we have right now.
Use the coordinates of 70W-75W and below 30W to see for yourself if the chances of an East Coast landfall supposedly increase. Below, you will find a description of the past couple frames in this model run of these 4 models.

GFS- NW track and also farthest north of the 4 models.
HWRF- Slightly more NW track in last couple frames of this model. Speed is also erratic.
CMC (GEM)- Really hugs the islands on this run. An East Coast landfall could be in the cards if the CMC solution verified.
GFDL- A tad south of the GFS, but close enough to the US that the East Coast could be hit as described in the GEM solution.

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