The latest GFDL has Maria travel NW, dance around the islands before likely making landfall on Florida as at least a hurricane. As of right now, it appears Maria may degenerate into a tropical wave but restrengthen, and here's why.
Maria is currently a weak tropical storm. She does not have a defined circulation, which I am anticipating a RECON aircraft will confirm tonight. She has a patch of clouds in her center (figure 1), which you can see is exposed from the main convection to the north of Maria (figure 2) with center roughly drawn in.
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Figure 1- red and blue box is storm's center. |
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Figure 2- red areas indicate heaviest storms |
Maria isn't in an environment favorable for development, and several models are not calling for any strengthening. Below, in Figure 3, you see Maria with a superimposed image of current wind shear in knots. Figure 4 is the official NHC track right now.
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Figure 3 |
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Figure 4 |
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