Monday, October 24, 2011

Rina Becomes a Hurricane; Florida Still in Threat Zone

Rina has become a hurricane and is currently at Category 1 hurricane status. As per the NHC, Rina is forecast to move westward into a NW direction, take a sudden North turn to apparently avoid hitting land. After that, the NHC believes Rina will move in a general eastward direction. I do not trust the last couple track points on this chart, as they have been changing in the last few image updates the NHC has issued on Rina.
The ensemble members tracking Rina remain in a fairly confused state, but a few models still show this hurricane making its way to Florida. It will still be awhile before we can find a consensus on this Florida track, if there will be one.
Intensity models remain in a high placement for forecasts, with most models extending into Category 2 strength and Category 3 strength. Is it possible a major hurricane could hit Florida? Possibly, but this late in the season? Probably not.

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