Monday, October 24, 2011

Tropical Storm Rina Moves Towards Possible Landfall, Eventual Potential Florida Threat

The NHC is projecting newly named Tropical Storm Rina for move in a wobbly WNW direction in the next several hours, then making a sharp north turn while nearing the shores of Mexico. It is as if Rina is swerving to avoid crashing into land. As it does so, the NHC forecasts the system to reach hurricane status. At that time, the forecast time frame runs out, so we turn to ensembles, which have an interesting take on the situation.
3 ensembles make it as far as landfalling in southern Florida. most of them follow the general path of the NHC's track, but it appears the time frame runs out for many of the ensembles. About 4 ensembles deviate from the group and go into Mexico, which would significantly reduce strength potentials. We can expect the ensembles to organize themselves out in the short term over the next few model runs of these ensembles.
Check out the ensemble forecasts for the storm's strength. This is the more concerning image. One ensemble member even makes it to Category 4 hurricane strength! The majority keep it around Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane strength, but this will be something to watch closely over the coming days for a potential threat to Florida.

No comments: