Friday, October 21, 2011

Tropical System Could Cause Trouble for Florida in Next Week

A tropical system currently located in the Caribbean has the NHC on edge with a 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours. This low has quite a substantial chance of development as conditions for development will improve over the next several days.
This invest will likely move eastward, then northwest, where the models stop tracking it because of they are out of the time frame. However, there is already a very tight consensus, which means the models are in a good agreement. The GFS Ensemble members show this low then moving to the northeast and potentially hitting Florida.
The worrying thing is how the intensity models handle this. A couple models even display the storm going into Category 4 before 7 days out, which is when Florida may be affected.

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