Friday, November 18, 2011

18z GFS Keeps Potential Northeast Thanksgiving Storm Offshore

Today's 18z GFS has kept the storm system to the south, more south than the 12z GFS. In this solution, precipitation would be kept to a minimum and snow accumulations would be lighter. We just checked individual GFS Ensemble members and found that only 2 of 12 members forecast snow in the region. Check stats below.

Ensemble members forecasting snow (out of 12 members)
0z GFS- 9/12 (75%)
6z GFS- 11/12 (92%)
12z GFS- 5/12 (42%)
18z GFS- 2/12 (17%)

We are not buying the idea of a snowstorm, but if enough cold air can be in place, I would expect MAXIMUM totals of 4 inches. This, of course, is subject to change as we are over 5 days out from the possible storm.

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