Saturday, November 12, 2011

Potential for Severe Weather Tuesday?

Forecast instability for mid-day Monday. Higher instability = more severe storms.
The 18z GFS is showing the potential for some severe weather in the south in the next couple days as warm air is dragged north, and hits the drier air, thus producing some nasty storms. We are anticipating these storms to form sometime between Monday and Tuesday, and they may be intense. While looking at vertical velocities, we see that velocities will be high in this time period, indicating lifting mechanisms, in turn indicating thunderstorm activity may be present. A front or possibly a dry line will be attached to a low pressure system that will be moving east. This front/dryline will serve as the starting point for thunderstorms.

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