Wednesday, December 28, 2011

January 2-4 Potential East Coast Snowstorm Event Update

Well, the 0z ECMWF was a major disappointment. It kept the system in Canada all together, pretty much leaving the US out of the big snows that were initially possible. But for this update, we are going to say that there is a storm that might affect the Northeast- and why it might trend west instead.

NAO Forecast
The ensemble forecasts for the NAO are showing a general downturn from the positive phase towards a more neutral phase after New Years. Some ensembles are even going as far to say that the NAO will turn negative. If this were to happen, the chances of an East Coast snowstorm, in my mind, would greatly increase. However, that's a bit too far out to make a definitive prediction on. But what does all this positive NAO (+NAO) and negative NAO (-NAO) mean?
During a +NAO, a low pressure of sorts is over Greenland, which in turn moves the jet stream more north and gives the East Coast some warmer weather. In a negative phase, it is basically the opposite- we see a high pressure over Greenland give the Northeast cold and snowy weather, which is shown as an enhanced trough.
Putting those together indicates that there would be at least some potential for an East Coast snowstorm if the ensembles go as planned and the NAO moves for neutral of even negative territory.

The NAO isn't the only thing that has effects on the US. There is also the MJO. Right now, we're sitting in a moderate Phase 5 stage. We are forecasted to move into a weakening Phase 6, an almost nonexistent Phase 7 and right into the Circle of Death- when the MJO switches phases by moving in a circle in a repetitive pattern, seen by the jagged red circle in Phases 4 and 5. That is what has already happened. As we move into Phases 5, 6, 7, it comes to mind what the effects of each stage are.
Precipitation Anomalies by Phases
The stronger the Phase indicates the more these precipitation anomalies will show themselves. We are going into at least a moderate Phase 6, so let's take a look. Phase 6 includes a wet precipitation anomaly over the Ohio Valley, Southern Plains and Great Lakes, while leaving the East Coast dry. In fact, Phases 6 and 7 (the phases in which the storm will happen) both are discouraging for precipitation in the Northeast. That would provide a sort of building ground that the storm, if it is to come into the US, would affect the Midwest more than the Northeast. However, as a knowledgable weather enthusiast has said, it is a 'marriage of sorts' with the teleconnections. That means, some indices can be favorable for a storm while some are not, and the ones that are not prevail in the end.

For those wondering, the PNA is going to be moving into a very weak positive phase during this storm, per the CPC Ensembles, so I would say it might not be a factor.

As of right now, I am in a wait and see mode, as the models are having trouble with this. I am closely watching the MJO, NAO, among other indices to see if I can find some hints that this storm may or may not happen.

19 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Good afternoon Andrew.This isn't related to this topic.Anyway,do you see an artic outbreak next week?My local forecasters are predicting highs in the lower 20's from next on? What are your thoughts on this? Also,this local forecasters can be very annoying at predicting the weather.I watch on station,and another,and they are completely different.The only thing i can figure out is they must be looking at different computer models.Another question,when the pattern change does occur,do you think my area will start seeing the MAJOR winterstorms your predicting?I'm located in holmes county Ohio.Thanks.

Andrew said...

Yes, I am seeing an arctic outbreak possible next week with this possible storm. If the storm track stays as it is right now, there will be some major snowstorms.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Could my area in Ohio be in line for HEAVY snow from these storms?Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Is nj in for a big snow storm next week?

Andrew said...

Mike: Too far out to tell.

Anonymous: Yes- this one and then possibly another one a few days later.

Andrew said...

EDIT to Anonymous: But both of these remain to be seen as of where their tracks could go. For the potential of a storm, yes, NJ does have potential.

LJ said...

When will northern Illinois get into the big snows?

Greg said...

would southern newengland be in line for either of these storms? and is the 2nd to 4th storm still possible?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.This goes with my last post.I meant to say,when the pattern changes,would there be storms from the souuthwest of Ohio that could bring heavy snow to my location in Ohio?Also,how long do you think the cold outbreak be around?Just a guess.Thanks.

Andrew said...

LJ: too far out to tell.

Greg: Possibly.

Mike: ...I suggest you see my latest Facebook Page post...while it might not be pleasant, it is my views as of now. It sickens me.

Facebook page: www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I just saw it.It looks like this winter may be the winter without any snow.I agree,it's hard to believe this.There is always hope,i guess.

Andrew said...

There is hope, but with each day the hope dwindles.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Exactly what i'm thinking.It's hard too believe.I'm at a loss for words.

LJ said...

Thanks anyways Andrew.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Basically,the way i figure the rest of this winter we will see cold shots of air with very little snow.Also,when a storm system does form,it may be cold but the system probably will have a warm front attached to it making all the precip.in the for of rain instead of snow.This is exactly what has happened in Ohio this year.We are well above normal in the rainfall department this year.Do you think this could be the case for the rest of the winter?I'm just guessing this outlook.Thanks.

Andrew said...

LJ: Anytime.

Mike: It is an excellent guess- with a wet fall leading into the first parts of winter, Ohio will likely continue to be wet.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.So you think i won't see any heavy snow this winter?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I just checked the GFS out on the weather underground site,and it shows a pretty good area of precip.trying to form southwest of Ohio on the 14'th of January.I understand that this far out is not accurate at all,but the way i see it is a glimmer of hope.Goodnight.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Mike here.I was wondering if there is any other ways of telling if the pattern will change in the future.For example different models,etc.I'm just trying to think of some way we could figure this out.I cannot believe the pattern is stuck the way it is.It's been along time since this has happened to winters in the recent years.Truly hard to believe.