Saturday, December 31, 2011

New Years Day Forecast - Valid 1/1/12

New Year's Day 2012 is already upon us, and that means it's time for your New Year's Day Forecast!
POPcast from
Valid 7:00 am EST
Throughout the Day, we will be seeing some precipitation throughout the upper Midwest and Great Lakes as a system will be moving eastward from Canada. It will be a strong system, so plowable snow is likely. We have snow accumulations below.
POPcast from
Valid 7:00 pm EST
In the evening hours, there will still be potential for some precipitation in the Great Lakes area, where strong winds will bring in harshly cold air to start the new year.

48 hour snowfall from

48 hour snowfall from
There is potential for upwards of 8 inches in Michigan from this lake effect snow, with some 1-4 inches of snow across Minnesota and Wisconsin from the system itself, and some lake effect snow closer to the Lakes. By far, Michigan's both upper and lower sections will be the hardest hit. Accumulations may look light on the Eastern side of the Lakes, but that may be because the lake effect machine is only starting to kick in at the 48 hour mark.


WINDcast from
Winds will be very strong on New Year's day, with sustained winds over 30 MPH on land, and over 45 MPH on Lake Michigan.
Here's a meteogram based in Chicago IL, one of the harder hit areas we are expecting of the winds. You can use the dashed lines that say (i.e. 06z GFS Max MT) for wind gusts, because 'Max MT' is essentially meaning the maximum wind gust that may happen in the area, in this case Chicago. (Mean MT is the mean wind gust expected.)
Click to enlarge
The 6z GFS Max MT is up at 70 MPH! Now keep in mind that the Max MT is the ultimate maximum for wind speeds and probably will not happen. A more reliable wind gust measurement would be the mean MT.

Have a great New Years!


LJ said...

It's going to be very windy where I live!

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I just checked the instantweathermaps site,and it's showing CRAZY snowfall totals on Jan.16.Remember the 4 FOOTER it was predicting last week!!

LJ said...

Mike, where are you talking about?

Andrew said...

Mike: Not nearly as crazy as the 4 footer. 6 inches is indeed a lot of snow, but 4 feet is indeed a one in a million shot.

LJ: I believe he was referencing the Northeast/Ohio Valley

Anonymous said...

andrew im in the toronto ontario area and its been raining most of new years day the local weather is expecting snow squalls to set up on lake huron and gerogen bay on monday but can southern ontario get some snow storms in jan or is it going to be rain again

Yesterway said...

I do not know if my question is appropriate for this blog. If I have made an error in posting here please pardon me. I live in Florida where there has been an on-going extreme drought for years. Lakes state wide are now prairies and as the water levels drop consumptive use sky rockets in response to population explosion. This relationship cannot continue for much longer and will ultimately affect the quality of life for all concerned. Irreversible salt water intrusion is well underway along the Florida west coast and is spreading north and south and further inland. Bottled water will become a reality for all no longer being an option. Hardy native vegetation such as pine trees are dying from a lack of rainfall. Insects are invading homes and other places not normally habitated by insects in their search for water. Politicians ignore the warnings from scientists regarding continued development and water management agencies have been stripped of all their power to regulate how our water supplies are managed.
Question #1: When will this La Nina event end and an El Nino event begin?
Question #2: Has Florida's climate indeed changed to that of a desert?

Any informed explanations would be greatly appreciated.

Andrew said...

It appears that an el niƱo will be happening next winter. Florida is just having a rough time with this la Nina- it will recover.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Toronto should get some good snow sooner or later.