Wednesday, February 1, 2012

February 2-6 Significant Snowstorm Discussion (2/1/12)

12z GFS 84 hour Snowfall Forecast

12z NAM 84 hour Snowfall Forecast
I am looking at a significant snowstorm to impact the Plains and Midwest in the next several days as a strong storm system makes its way across the region.

Discussion. . .
Seeing potential for a significant snowstorm rise across the Plains today as the NAM/GFS models begin to agree on placement of snowfall. Totals are a different matter. Currently have NAM ordering over 15 inches of snow in Iowa, with the GFS maxing out at 13 inches. 
Typically find NAM to be overdone with snowfall totals in winter storm scenarios. This does not rule out the NAM's idea, however. . .as the amount of Gulf moisture the storm pulls in will be crucial. Storm system is expected to rapidly strengthen and likely increase the amount of moisture it pulls in during the strengthening. The exact point of this strengthening will be key, as that area will receive the heaviest snows.
12z suite of weather models appears to be solid with a track up until the Great Lakes. . .when the ever-changing GEM makes a move north rather than offshore, like the other models are predicting. 
For the next 84 hours, the ECMWF looks to be rock solid. The ECMWF and GFS combined appear to look like the big ones to trust. I find the ECMWF to be unusually good in it's previous 0z verification- 12z verification data has yet to be seen. Here's the verification from the 0z suite. Models closest to the bottom of the image are theoretically better at forecasting for that forecast cycle.


MY THOUGHTS and FORECAST
I am expecting to see snowfall totals approaching 1 foot in Iowa and Nebraska, with isolated totals over 1 foot. I am taking a somewhat conservative route with this storm as the details are not nailed in. (Just saw the 18z NAM data, it is around the same as my forecast below)


If anyone has observations from the storm, I would appreciate a shout out on our Facebook page, which is accessible on our right-hand sidebar.
Any questions may be asked below.


-Andrew

25 comments:

Aran said...

So this means Valparaiso doesn't seem to be in the MAJOR part of the storm?

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I just read an article on accuweather.com Alex Sosnowski posted.It's about the polar vortex.I asked him on facebook when the east US.will start to see bigger storms.He replied,mid-Feb.He said an higher amp jet could cause this.Do you see this happening?Hope your doing well!!!!!!Let this cold air come with snow!!!!!!!!!!

Wally Gullang Huntley, Ill said...

Just watched ABC in Chicago and Mike Caplin who I consider second best in Chicago behind Tom Skilling, is saying something will happen this weekend. And he is saying it can be a BIG snow storm. Again, he is saying it can. So the local stations are just starting to jump on the band wagon. Time will tell

Kyle said...

Could someone please disable the snow shield over Indiana so we could get a little snow this year. I am not asking for a major winter storm. I promised my 3 year old I would take her sledding this year and so far that is not possible. I feel like I should move to Texas or Alaska to get any snow this year. I have bulbs coming up in my yard if that says anything.

eddie said...

With all this stuff budding already that stuffs in trouble. if winter ever shows up alot I mean ALOT of the trees and plants will die

Aran said...

In fact that reminds me of 2005,Eddie.It was really warm and in February we had a MAJOR ice storm.It killed many of the plants until the middle of summer!

Andrew said...

Aran: Right now it appears unlikely, but I would still watch it closely.

Mike: I could see this happening. I am doing fine, Mike, and I hope you are too.

Wally: Thanks for the report, Wally. This is definitely worth watching for your area.

Kyle: That is a bad sign for when cold and snow rolls around.

Eddie: Agreed.

mike paulocsak said...

Hey Eddie.True statement.My grass is starting to grow already.It's very green.

ERN WX said...

Gfs dropped idea of coastal system. Andrew, I think next Saturday could be the big one for the East!

eddie said...

Hi Mike,
Instead of your snow blower you will need your lawn mower

ERN WX said...

Mike, I wish you would get some snow!!! I do see some signs of hope for you!!!

ERN WX said...

Eddie, have you seen any lake effect snow?

eddie said...

ERN WX

I live by detroit so we dont get much we have only got showers that maybe added up to a trace to 2 inches at the most

ERN WX said...

Rough Eddie. The best I have seen is 2.5 inches. A panhandle hook would give you a good snow.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi ERN WX!! That is what i'm looking for.Usually we get one every winter season.None so far.There is still hope though!Hope you and Eddie get some big snows too soon!!!!!!!

eddie said...

Yeah i wish last year in feb we had 40+ inches of snow in ONE month
it was great it was storm after storm

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Eddie.Back in Feb.2010 we had three major storms with all heavy snow.It would be great to see that again!

eddie said...

yes it would be

ERN WX said...

Mike, I can't believe the fact that there have been no panhandle hooks. Normally there are several every winter. Apps runners also produce good snow for your area. Have a good day, Mike!

mike paulocsak said...

Hi ERN WX.You have a great evening yourself!!

Aran said...

Do you think I have any hope for it to become a major snowstorm for my area?If so how much?

Andrew said...

Aran: It looks like my whole accumulation map now needs readjusting.

Aran said...

Why?Did something change?Are you going to issue another post?I am sorry if I did anything.

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew. I was wondering if you see ohio getting any snow from this giant storm?

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Is the storm trending to the south or east instead of shooting in a northerly fashion?Also,i seen accuweather's the rest of the winter outlook.Spoiler alert,it doesn't look good for snow and cold at all.