Texas is under a Winter Storm Watch for the December 20th storm (
click here for this morning's discussion) as that area is expecting over 12 inches of snow. Here is what the models are saying:
 |
| 6z GFS 84 Hour Snowfall Accumulation |
The GFS is going in cautiously compared to the GFS, with maximum accumulations up to 15 inches, which is still a lot of snow.
 |
| 12z NAM 84-Hour Snowfall Accumulation |
The 12z NAM is going in, guns blazing, with maximum snow accumulations projected at 21 inches- nearly 2 feet! The NAM has been known to be a little on the heavy side with snow accumulations, so we will be going with the GFS for now, until we see the new 12z GFS, which ought to be similar to the 6z GFS as we are getting into the short range part of forecasting.
This post was just a briefing, and if there is anything else we will notify you.
8 comments:
I Love your Blog!
Thank you!
I'm always looking at weather models and I have a question: What's the difference between the GFS 12z and the GFS 6z?
Model runs happen at specific times. These times go by military time. Some models run 4 times a day, like the GFS and NAM. They run at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. That's 6pm CST, Midnight CST, 6 AM CST, Noon CST. The later the timeframe is the fresher run. After 18z, you start all over again at 0z, then up to 18z and back to 0z again in a cycle. Some models, like the European, will run twice a day, usually at 0z and 12z. Another difference is that the 0z and 12z models get new upper air observations, which theoretically makes the models more reliable for those runs. The 6z and 18z runs take the old 0z and 12z data and tweak it a bit to simulate conditions at 6z and 18z.
Wow, thanks for the info! Now I know what I'm looking at and it makes sense. I love your website btw =) My name is Reid and my parent is Tom from Bethel, CT. Thanks for the info/updates again!
You are welcome. Glad I could help. :)
Is this storm going to drop any snow in Central Illinois? It looks like it might from the map. Please advise.
It is possible that northern regions of Central Illinois might get some snow.
Post a Comment