Sunday, June 5, 2011

June 5- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development off the coast of Central America.
Thunderstorms have increased and organization has become more evident within this system, more in the eastern section of this surface system. It does appear that the dry air pumping into the low has stopped mostly, as clouds have surrounded the area around the low, evident of warm air in place instead of the dry air.
The storm's tracks have really been the same for in the way of a couple of consensus'. One of those agreements (and the most predominant) is having the low being thrown out to sea, away from land. there are also 2 smaller consensus', one of which slams into Florida, and another agreement that takes the low into the Gulf of Mexico.
Intensity forecasts aren't too impressive but have evolved into two solutions. One solution is for the system to remain below tropical cyclone status. The other solution is a tropical storm to occur.

As of now, it looks like this storm may become a tropical depression and could really go between Texas and out into the Atlantic Ocean. We will have a more definitive track as we progress into this storm.

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