June 19- Moderate Risk Severe Weather Discussion

This is a MODERATE RISK Severe Weather Discussion. 
There is a moderate risk in effect for:
-Northwest Kansas
-Extreme SW Iowa
-Extreme NW Missouri
-Much of south Nebraska


Today's severe weather discussion will be the Storm Prediction Center's Public Severe Weather Outlook and then my own take on this situation below the outlook.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
          SOUTHWEST IOWA
          NORTHERN KANSAS
          NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   A LARGE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
   NORTHERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
   RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. 
   THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING CLUSTER DURING THE
   EVENING WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
   DARK.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.

My take on this severe weather is that today's storms will probably contain at least one 

tornado. That's just the plain fact of it.

These storms are setting up to go supercellular, and once that happens, rotation will only need to take place and up goes a tornado warning.

However, this isn't doomsday, either. This is still just a moderate risk of storms. While it is something to keep a close eye on, this event likely won't be a horrendous outbreak like 

back in April 25-27.

I will issue updates to keep everyone up to the minute of developments.

Current Hail outlook (Likely triggered moderate risk area)

Current Tornado Threat

Current High Wind threat