Saturday, December 10, 2011

December 20 Snow Event (Midwest Affected)

Confidence Level: Medium-High

12z GFS at Hour 240

12z ECMWF at Hour 240
The 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS appear to be in a good agreement over a low pressure system forecast to move over the Midwest, putting down snow in portions of the region. However, the ECMWF appears to be slightly more northward than the GFS, thus pushing snowfall higher north. The top image's thick blue line is the rain/snow line, meaning all precipitation above the blue line is theoretically all snow. The GFS has been shifting southward with this storm, and it appears the ECMWF has as well. If this trend continues, cities such as Chicago and Milwaukee may get snow when they were instead forecast to receive rain. Again, there are model differences that have to be worked out, but the general trend is shown well at this time.


Anonymous said...

Would Detroit Michigan get snow

Gundeep said...

Toronto would get a good amount right?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.How are the models looking for the Christmas Eve and day snowstorm?

Andrew said...

Anonymous and Gundeep: It depends on the rain/snow line enough so that I cannot make the call if Detroit or Toronto will get snow.

Mike: The 12z GFS looks like it still has the energy but keeps it tracking south and turning into likely a Coastal storm. The good things are:
-This is the first time the model has shown this after many runs saying otherwise, thus decreasing some credibility for this run
-The event is so far out that the modes are right to be entering a turbulent forecasting phase.

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with Andrew, Mike. The teleconnections look to be favoring a Midwest storm around Christmas time, not and East Coast one.

Anonymous said...

More so Monday the 19th...areas West of great lakes

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Anonymous no.2. I live in northern Ohio,not the east coast.Just letting you know that.I also agree with Andrew.