Up to 9 inches of snow is possible per the 18z NAM, but the NAM has been known to over-estimate snowfall amounts. Here's what the models think, all engraved on graphs.
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| SREF Ensembles |
The SREF has never been too adventurous with this snowstorm, so I would bet on the models above the model average. But we will have to see, as every ensemble has their right to their own forecasts.
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| Models |
The models are showing a range from 1-5 inches. This is not the accumulation, but rather accumulation with compaction- that is, snowfall compressed on the ground after all is set and done. Here's the snowfall without compression- what we classify as the actual accumulation.
As you can see, accumulations without the compression are higher, with the NAM reaching into the 8 inch range. Below is what models we think are correct in accumulation forecasts:
We are thinking 3-6 inch accumulations right now. This is for Chicago, and the most affected areas will actually be the northern suburbs within Illinois. In the whole inter-state snowfall accumulations, Wisconsin may get a foot of snow.
As you can see, accumulations without the compression are higher, with the NAM reaching into the 8 inch range. Below is what models we think are correct in accumulation forecasts:
We are thinking 3-6 inch accumulations right now. This is for Chicago, and the most affected areas will actually be the northern suburbs within Illinois. In the whole inter-state snowfall accumulations, Wisconsin may get a foot of snow.
16 comments:
unfair for our charleteons hahahaah
The news said detroit could get a couple inches is this true
Are the snowfall totals going to be the same for Belvidere, IL. It is near Rockford, IL. Thanks
Eddie: Detroit may get dry-slotted, which means dry air flows into the region and no precipitation falls.
LJ: The highest accumulations will occur in northeast Illinois, so no.
Do you think Columbia, MO could get some snow? Have heard a lot of different things from the local stations.
Checking out the NWS/HPC, It looks like Columbia, MO might get some flakes flying, but accumulations aren't looking too favorable.
Edit to LJ: Re-checking the NWS, It looks like your area could get 3+ inches.
Will Central Illinois get any snow? Springfield in particular.
Thanks Andrew.
Just letting you know that i will not be posting here anymore.Thanks for answering my questions i did ask though.I don't want to waste your time anymore.
Hello Andrew.This isn't related to this post.Anyway,do you still believe that there couldstill be a big storm when the pattern change occurs?Just a guess.Thanks.
Winter storm watch for my area! It will be interesting.
I would say this is going to be the biggest winter storm the united states will have this year.So from now on till the end of winter,the northeast & ohio valley will not see a single winterstorm!!!
ANY UPDATE ON THE PATTERN CHANGE?LATE JAN.OR LATE FEB.?
The pattern change should happen roughly late march as predicted.
Mike: We have yet to re-examine that topic. As of right now it remains on the table.
Anonymous #1: I would like to hear the evidence behind the 'one and done' theory you have. Not trying to be offensive, it just interests me that someone would go with that theory.
Anonymous #2: The pattern change date is in hiatus until we are sure that the pattern change will still happen.
Anonymous #3: No one is predicting that.
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