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| Weeks 3 and 4 (top to bottom) 500mb height forecasts |
We will focus on week 4 (bottom image). In the last days of February, we are seeing a -NAO and a ridge over Alaska. The -NAO is characterized by a strong ridge right near Greenland (the gray/beige color embedded in the dark red). At this time, the NAO looks to be west based, which is not the most ideal conditions for a snowstorm, but still a starting point considering the lack of -NAO days this winter.
There is also a ridge forecasted to be in Alaska. This ridge has only been observed a couple times at most this winter, and in the times it was observed we saw some cold and snow. I would not be surprised to see a big snowstorm for the Northeast in the last week of February if this verifies, as the combination of a -NAO/Alaskan Ridge end up with a trough in place offshore the Northeast (the green region).
Again, this is all very uncertain, but it could be a step in the right direction.
7 comments:
what did you mean by SSW in bad health on facebook
The stratospheric warming we have seen is starting to cool off, which would essentially hamper some efforts to get some more cold and snow into the States.
You never know what can happen within a day
Yes, Andrew,I have been told that the stratosphere was likely going to cool, but I was also told that it would be brief and warming would occur soon afterwards. The Gfs has constantly been showing blocking, and also east coast snow. The one thing that would guarantee cold and snow would be a -NAO. Models don't know how to handle this past 5 days. Yes, the CFS, which is normally crazy has done shockingly well this winter. I certainly intend to pay attention to what it says. The 18z GFS you should certainly look at! If you haven't already. Don't worry man, I haven't thrown winter out yet!!! Good work as always, Andrew. Thanks for what you do.
Hours 312 and 324 of the 18z Gfs are what easterners are wishing for! 6-12 inches for a lot of people!
What you say about BIG SNOWS falling in February for the east is true, Andrew. In 2010 I got 3 10+ inch snowstorms!!! One was a mere 27 inches!!! That fell within 24 hours. It was a wonderful winter. This year has not been good so far, but easterners, I think we have 1 or 2 big ones that will visit us this winter.
The east coast seems to always get one or more big snows. The ohio valley usually gets cold at the same time but seldom big snows.
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