Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Note

Just something I posted on my Facebook page for y'all to think over...

For those thinking my latest winter update was just for kicks, go ahead and think that. But here's the plain fact- a pattern change of sorts has already happened, shown by the falling GLAAM/NAO/AO, rising PNA, weak polar vortex and unstable potential vorticity, sudden stratospheric warmings, and more cold and snow than December. The question is if this pattern change will continue to come together, which is still in debate.

The reason I have not told you is because the details on if the pattern had changed were still being worked out. 

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

But aren't the AO and NAO supposed to go back to positive phases starting in early February?

Andrew said...

Possibly, but it doesn't look like for long.

Dominic Sinibaldi said...

Computer models have their value but also have numerous limitations. My personal experiences have shown me that models often perform poorly when attempting to predict situations that fall outside the normal range of events (less frequent) that are used to construct the model. I believe that the winter pattern we are currently experiencing represents such an event. I feel that your approach of evidence based forecasting in combination with a little human intuition is undervalued and I appreciate that you are defending your assessment. On the personal side, I hope your forecast proves to be accurate because the kid in me still loves a good snow day.

ERN WX said...

Dominic, you are correct when you say that computer models have their value and also have limitations, but I do see many of the same things Andrew s seeing. If you watch Frank Strait of Accuweather, you will definitely see that winter has a trick up its sleave. I have no intentions of being rude. I would just like to say that there are many meteorologists who believe the pattern will at least get slightly colder and snowier. There are a lot of things to indicate this. I am glad you are not rude like some people are. Andrew, I know that this is not wishcasting. I have seen with my own eyes, the pattern changing. Keep up the good work!!

Aran said...

I see a deep low pressure system at hour 102 on the GFS.Could this be a snowstorm?

Anonymous said...

Glad you're still trying to be optimistic, but you're one of very few. Even Henry Margusity has backed off a little with the pattern change and starting to come to reality. Most people that aren't located in Upper Midwest or interior northeast, I get the feeling they have given up this winter.

Andrew said...

Dominic: I have the same thoughts as you on the models fiasco. Let's all hope there's still a good snow left for the US.

Eastern WX: You are correct- the pattern is changing/has changed. I guess the problem now is how to decipher the potential effects from this slow, quiet pattern change.

Aran: It looks like a clipper of sorts, which might put down a couple inches in your area.

Anonymous: I am one of the few who is going off evidence that a slow pattern change has occurred, while everyone else is still waiting for the change. I guess time will tell who's right, but as for right now it looks like we've definitely experienced a change of sorts.

Aran said...

No websites are predicting any snow.

Dominic Sinibaldi said...

I think my “undervalued” comment was misinterpreted. I was trying to suggest that I believe that the too many meteorologists live and die by the model and that the use of non-model evidence and intuition is undervalued by the community. In my opinion Andrew is spot on in discounting the current long-term models.

bweather said...

Northern Va is were I live and we have had 1-1.5"in of snow. Either were building a big snow dump or Old
Man winter is packing his bag till next year. In my opinion Old Man Winter is not done and everyone will get the 1 nice snowstorm before it's over. February can give nice "CURVEBALLS"....