Friday, January 13, 2012

Major Winter Storm Still On Table as La Nina Weakens

Above is an animation of recent sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO monitoring area. Checking out the animation, we see that the La Nina is losing steam, going along the negative SOI numbers. Negative SOI numbers signify an El Nino.
So why are we still thinking a big snowstorm may happen?

The President's Day Snowstorm of 1979 (President's Day I)
The President's Day Storm of 1979 came during the flip from a La Nina to an El Nino. If that same situation happens with this winter, it is entirely possible that several snowstorm could hit the East US. A flip in the middle of winter is not something that goes by without notice. The entire atmosphere is in a turbulent phase, more than the polar vortex.

In conclusion, while short, we still believe a major snowstorm is possible, depending on, among many other variables, the ENSO conditions. Remember- patience is key; I see the recent Midwest snowstorm to be a very good sign that winter is getting in gear.

12 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.This probably won't affect ohio at all.I don't see ohio getting any major snows this season.

Anonymous said...

i really hope charlotte nc will get some snow this year,do you think maybe we will see a goddsize snowstorm and if how many.That depends if a el nino happerns right?,whats your chances of la nina swiching to el nino right now?

thx.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.This goes with my previous post.The meteorologists said this in my area,this is not my thinking.

Andrew said...

Mike: You never know. Don't give up until you're absolutely sure about it.

Anonymous: Chances of a Nina to Nino are at about 50%. It could go either way. We cannot accurately predict chances of a snowstorm.

Mike: Your local meteorologists have thrown in the towel way too early.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Don't worry i'll keep up HIGH hopes.Some meteorologists in my area get too caught up in lake effect snows,rather than system snows.

Anonymous said...

The ohio valley is overdue for a big snowstorm. Last year the alberta clipper brought most of the snow. I live in eastern in.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Anonymous no.2.I agree 100% with you.I live in Ohio.We are bound to get something heavy in the near future.

Anonymous said...

hi i live in nyc are we going to be effected my this big storm

Andrew said...

Anonymous: We cannot predict where this storm will hit. This is a general overview.

Anonymous said...

One thing that everyone should note ( esp. if you live on the east coast) is that for the most part, Henry Margussity and The Farmers Almanac have done the best with winter forecasting. Both say that winter will get into gear during February. The east coast will get its snow during February and March. I 100% believe that the pattern will change very soon. The Mid Atlantic will likely have above average snowfall for the entire winter. The biggest storm according to the Farmers Almanac, will occur around the 20th of February. They say over 12inches, similar to Henry's predictions.

Andrew said...

I agree on the pattern change.
As for the snowstorm, while anything's possible, it seems a bit too far out for me to think about it.
But for Henry, i'm sure it will verify in some way.

Mike Paulocsak said...

I agree with anonymous.I have been following Henry on accuweather lately.He said the focus of storms will shift to the ohio valley,mid-atlantic,and the east coast.