We are seeing signs of intense stratospheric warming in the near future per the ECMWF model. Let's break down the images. The first one is the forecasted 10mb temperatures. We can see a sudden spike in atmospheric temperatures around the end of the ECMWF timeframe. The totally dashed line is the 30 year mean of 10mb temperatures. The second image is projected 30mb temperatures. In a similar fashion, we see a big increase in temperatures from where we are now.
This is only one model, but here's the thing- the stratosphere is somewhere around its tipping point. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event we recently had has done a number on the stratosphere. As of right now, the stratosphere is cooling down, but if this big warming comes to light, we may be seeing the 'Big Warm'- when the stratosphere warms for good to accompany the season changing into winter.
Now, the Big Warm is something that is hard to predict, so don't hold me to this. However, at some point the stratosphere has to break into the winter season, and it's only a matter of time now.
What we have here is a graph projecting temperature waves into the stratosphere. Basically, when the lines are higher up, it indicates a higher amount of warm air being pushed into the stratosphere which would help warm it up. In order to get the stratosphere to warm to the warming that we need to help the pattern change, we ideally want both waves to get into the upper parts of the image. It is encouraging seeing the Wave 2 forecast move higher up on the map.
This is getting more interesting by the day, folks.
7 comments:
I've been hearing about this dumb warming, but for my location, in the next 10 days, only 1 day will be below freezing. This winter will be a terrible one and even if the pattern does "change," it will be much too late. Tired of all this pattern change coming soon. Have 2 days of cold and that's it. Time to give up on this winter. Wait until next year. And I'm just speaking the truth. People who are constantly calling for a pattern to change and then pushing it back are called wishcasters. We will see if the pattern does change, but I doubt it. Earlier you mentioned, mid January. Won't be then, cause it will stay warm in a week. Then today you mentioned mid to late January. Will it happen in late January? I don't know, but I have serious doubts. Maybe it will happen in December 2012.
The weather can change.As I recall you where the one who said don't give up on your hopes.
The pattern will change.Winter can go until April depending where your location is.Just remember a general rule of thunb,some of the heaviest snowfall can occur before & after winter.Take for instance.I did some research and there was a storm that occured in April.19-21 1901 in Ohio that brought over 42" ofsnow to portions of eastern Ohio.If you don't believe me look up the following link.1901 snowstorm in Ohio.The point i'm trying to make is that don't give up hope,there is still plenty of time for snow to fall.
sorry wrong person.i mean Mike said that
Anonymous: Here's the thing: You are not speaking the truth because you do not know how this winter will end up. I never said there will be immediate effects- that's not how the weather works. Late January will be the cold and snow. And i'm sorry if you don't like getting shafted from this winter, but keep in mind that EVERYONE is experiencing this as well.
Nobody knows how winter will turn out.The best people can do is do what Andrew does and PREDICT.Now if your thinking:I have heard this before.Wait and see what happens.If you don't get a lot of snow this year,you have a season with severe weather to be pumped up about. Maybe 2012-2013 winter will be a winter with snow every day.Just wait and see.You could be write or wrong.Nobody can tell the future.All I can say is PATIENCE is the key to weather.You just have to wait and see in weather.
Interesting thought.... There are many folks that are hoping on a mild winter. People who can't pay their heating bills are very grateful. Working out in it isn't fun either for most. So there is a silver lining to the odd winter so far. Not all is lost...it will get colder and it will snow before it's all said and done. Keep your snow shovels out.
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