Saturday, January 7, 2012

SOI Values Suddenly Collapse

Use the legend at the top for corresponding columns.
In recent days we have seen the SOI values fall apart. The SOI is used to measure La Ninas/El Ninos. When a La Nina is present, the SOI is positive When an El Nino is present, the SOI is negative. This is very interesting, because we appear to be potentially moving into an El Nino, according to the SOI. Considering the winter pattern so far, I can't say i'm surprised, as this winter hasn't exactly been 'winter'.
(For the record, Accuweather Meteorologist Henry Margusity first predicted an El Nino for February a little while back)
What does this sudden change mean? Theoretically, it means we are going into an El Nino. By now, you probably know that when I use the word 'theoretically', it means that it would happen under its own circumstances without any other factors influencing it. However, that's not the way the weather works. We have a pattern change in progress, along with many indices to keep track of, such as the NAO/AO/PNA etc.
I think that this will be a very favorable pattern for at least the Northeast. An El Nino favors the Northeast for precipitation. That, combined with the extremely early-stage pattern change, should make for a cold and snowy winter for the Northeast starting around February into March. The South should continue to get some wet weather as we have been seeing.
Areas like the Great Lakes are a bit harder to forecast. All this cold that may eventually come down would produce some snowy weather for the area. However, an El Nino typically does not favor the Great Lakes, unless there is an East Based -NAO, which could be debatable. It is possible, considering a -NAO will be taking over. It's really confusing in my eyes as there are even more things that will have to be factored in.

Remember, you can ask questions about this winter from 12-1 PM CST today. We will provide a link on this blog where you can post your questions and they will be answered. More info here.


Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Very interesting post.I liked it! Does this mean also the Ohio area would share in some snows?I sure hope so!

Andrew said...

Probably so, especially since the Northeast is favored with Ninos.

LJ said...

Hopefully there is an east based -NAO, so I can get some snow!