Saturday, February 4, 2012

0z GFS Predicts Massively Negative NAO/AO


The 0z GFS is predicting the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation to move into a very strong negative phase going into mid February. What is being projected is the polar vortex to move south and hit the US as a very cold blast and possibly a snowstorm. I am afraid I cannot answer questions on where it will hit as i honestly don't know at this point.
The downside of this forecast is how the 0z GFS is the only one predicting this- the GFS Ensembles, ECMWF, ECMWF Ensembles are much more modest with the forecast. However- the ECMWF also predicts the polar vortex to be extremely displaced south into Canada and possibly the US.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

When you gonna post your spring severe wx outlook?

Andrew said...

2:00 PM CST this afternoon.

ERN WX said...

Well if Northern Africa is getting snow, chances are that Northeastern areas will get SNOW. That includes folks in the Ohio Valley! What we are seeing in Europe will eventually become present on the east coast. With the NAO doing what the 0z GFS shows there will be a MASSIVE East coast snow. Tonight, some folks could get 1-3 inches of snow ( sorry this does not go north past Trenton) around the Mason Dixon line. Folks too much further south{ excluding higher elevations} will mostly receive rain from thiis storm. Andrew, I certainly want to see your severe weather outlook. You are always very accurate with your forecasting. You do an excellent job! Thanks again for what you do!

eddie said...

what is the possibility of it staying negative through tomorrow?

eddie said...

if the polar vortex moves into the US would it be as cold as europe

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.First of all,i'm sorry to hear about Andy.My prayers are with his family.I have been doing some observations around Europe this afternoon.The temps.& cold is really holding strong.One would think that this would eventually come to the eastern part of the nation.The localsare saying a artic outbreak possibly next weekend on.Do you see this happening.The NAO is still showing quite a negative downward spiral in the coming days.Let's just hope this happens.Hope your day is going great.I'm going to watch the NAO closely too see if it keeps the trend of going negative.Time will tell i guess.

Anonymous said...

do u think nyc will get anthor snowstorm this winter

Anonymous said...

Are you going to post anymore?