Tuesday, February 21, 2012

6-9 Inches of Snow Possible for South Wisconsin

The 12z NAM is printing out 6 to 9 inches of snow in south central Wisconsin over the next 3 and a half days. This comes as the model projects a storm system to move through Southern Wisconsin and strengthen as it does so, with some additional, lower amounts coming from other small storm systems.

The main system in question will be a clipper system, meaning that little to no Gulf of Mexico moisture will be available to this storm. This provides some benefits and disadvantages. A big benefit includes the lessened risk of a dramatic rain/snow line, which thus cuts down on icing and also leaves more snow than rain. One of the bigger disadvantages, however, is how the strength of the system will be hindered due to the lack of Gulf moisture.

A caveat I am seeing with this storm is the presence of a low pressure area in the Southwest. The jet stream will be positioned to have little influence from the low pressure system. Influence meaning the jet stream being dragged south. And this is where the problems are. I see the potential that the models may be underestimating the jet stream's position, meaning that the jet may be farther south than what is being shown. This development would bring the system south and essentially do the same with snow amounts.

Any questions may be asked below.

1 comment:

mike paulocsak said...

Good evening Andrew.Do you honestly think that the Ohio Valley will not see a MAJOR snowstorm this winter?I'm thinking this myself unless march sees one.