Friday, February 3, 2012

7:00 AM CST Feb. 3 Snowstorm Briefing

The storm system is not changed from what was shown last night. It remains tilted at around a neutral angle, not showing any defined positive or negative tilt at the time.
Water vapor imagery suggests a dry slot is attempting to fill in and cut off some precipitation in West Kansas and west Nebraska. Main bulk of moisture in the air is now moving along a trough extending from the system itself, which is now in Oklahoma, into Kansas, far north Missouri and Central Illinois.
I think the dry slot will be enhanced soon enough as additional air is drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico. The dry slot will definitely hamper precipitation amounts that may have fallen otherwise.
Surface temperatures indicate that West Nebraska and Colorado are set to begin receiving snow. Radar imagery shows that snow is indeed falling in western Nebraska. Radar also detects that some thundersnow may be possible near North Platte, NE.

Up to 18 inches of snow still looks possible per the latest RUC model run on the NE/CO border, particularly in the region of Nebraska that eventually becomes the Panhandle of NE.

Next Update: 3:45 PM CST


Joshua Steiner said...

Andrew- On the latest 12z 500 mb vorticity analysis, one of the shortwaves propagating around the upper level closed low is beginning to take on a negative tilt. Do you think this could have any implications for the severe weather outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma. Also, how do you think the storm will impact Northern Ohio and Northeast Indiana. Our National Weather Service believes that the storm will move to far south for any significant precipitation only light rainfall and some mixing. Do you think the storm will have more of an impact on the Ohio Valley (No matter if its rain or snow?)

roadruner said...

While out on patrol rain started at 0600 with frequent cloud to ground lightning. And by 0700 we were approaching 1 inch of rain by 0800 the rain had reduced to sprinkles with heavy rain at times at 10 min intervals the next batch of heavy rain should be in the Greater kansas City area by 1415 hrs (215) there is a slight chance of snow with a low of 31on Sunday morn. Andrew is there a chance of snow for this area in the next 6 to 8 days(kansas city)

Maine man said...

The Noaa boys stated this PM that no storms forecast through next Fri. for the Northeast. I think the NAO needs to be negative for a good Nor'easter as we say here in Me.