We are currently in a moderate Phase 6 MJO. Phase 6 is typically associated with above normal precipitation in the South Plains into the Midwest and parts of the Ohio Valley. Temperature effects include much above normal temperatures in the East US, which we have been seeing with record highs even today.
The Forecast calls for the MJO to transition into a strong Phase 7 and sliding into a still strong Phase 8. With the GFS Ensembles, I feel pretty confident that this Phase 7 transition will occur. I am even optimistic that we will see a Phase 8 transition. Phase 8 involves a cool East US and a dry country overall.
The models are trending towards a Phase 7 transition but are not as strong with the Phase 7 nor as eager to go into a Phase 8 transition. That said, I think that the effects of Phase 7 MJO will become less dominant going into the Feb. 9-12 period.
Side note: For those who saw that I would not be posting, I decided against that decision as I was not thinking in the right mindset.
14 comments:
What does a strong 7 mjo mean for Detroit cold or warm
Averages above normal. Not by much.
Hello.Do you honestly think the east us in done with snow?I'm thinking so.Don't see it happening.
The latest GFS shows a GIANT train of snowstorms bombarding the Northeast.
Hi Andrew.Would this include northern ohio or not?
I'm talking about the snowstorms.Thanks
Mike: If they verified, there is a high chance that they would affect you.
Hi Andrew.Thanks.Would the lows be coming from the southwest or develope from the northeast?Also,what timeframe could this possibly occur.
What about Springfield IL if everything verfies like you say it might? Is there finally going to be some snow?
In about a week or so I will be going to a weather spotter's refresher's coarse for tornado's. Why do I get the feeling I will really need all the training I can get living here in Northern Illinois ?
Hey Andrew.I checked the NAO,and it's taking a real sharp downward turn toward the negative side.This may be a trend.Who knows.Hopefully this could be a sign of snowstorms in the Ohio Valley etc.
Andrew i was wondering the accuweather 15 day forecast how accurate is it that far out. and do temperatures change on there daily
THANKS
Long range forecasting is ROUGH. From my experience I have seen many different times where things are crazy with the models. Even at five days out there is still plenty of uncertainty. Henry seems thrilled about a Saturday storm. I do not think the East and Ohio Valley will go unscathed. The polar vortex has shifted. Cold and snow in Europe and Japan normally means cold and SNOW for the East coast. Andrew, I would like to say that you do a wonderful job with this blog. Hope you get some snow!!! Thanks for the terrific job you do with The Weather Centre. I appreciate it.
Mike: It's hard to tell at this point, but they might be clipper-type systems. Again, it's hard to tell.
Owen: If the train of snowstorms happens, anyone in the north Half of the US could get snow.
Wally: If you're actually asking that question (can't say i'm good at defining a difference between rhetorical questions and actual questions), that training could come in use for your area this spring.
Mike: I would not be surprised at all- I think the NAO will stay negative for at least a while more.
Eddie: I have found the Accuweather 15 day forecast to be pretty inaccurate. Those forecasts are usually based on one model and it takes a LOT of luck for them to verify. They change daily with the model.
Eastern WX: I agree with all of your opinions you posted. Thank you for the kind words.
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