Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Pattern Change Update (2/1/12)

There are indications that winter weather may be on the horizon for good this time. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS models are projecting the polar vortex to turn into a very small, pathetic, but still strong vortex that will drop into Canada. This vortex could easily moving towards the Northeast and wreck a massive wreck upon the region with a huge storm. Either way, the demise of the polar vortex may be at hand.
Other things we are seeing in these 8-10 day height anomalies are how there is a strong +PNA. This +PNA appears to be overwhelming the US weather. At the same time, the Alaskan Vortex looks to be shunted westward away from Alaska, where the +PNA ridge may be inclined to propagate towards Alaska. This remains to be seen but appears to be a valid possibility.
There is a -EPO spotted on the long range ECMWF but not really existent on the GFS.
While it is too late for stratospheric warming to have effects on us in the month of February, I am seeing a couple signs that another stratospheric warming event may be oncoming. An indicator of this is how both the height Waves 1 and 2 will be moving closer to each other in the 3rd image. The last time we saw them make contact, so to speak, was roughly around the time of the last sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In the first image, it is the same 2 waves but this time with temperatures. We look to be seeing both waves 1 and 2 rocket to higher temperatures which is showing warming in the stratosphere. Again, February will not be impacted by this, but if a SSW does occur and this warming propagates down to the surface, March-April could be absolutely horrible for severe weather (abnormal severe weather).

Questions may be asked below.
-Andrew

13 comments:

eddie said...

The phrase "winter weather may be on the horizon for good this time" in your article what does this mean winter will show up in the great lakes or does it mean winter is done in the great lakes. (detroit area)

Thanks

ERN WX said...

Andrew, I completely agree! Eliot Abrams says cold is on the way! Andrew, well done! Hope you are feeling well.

Anonymous said...

so no snow for charlotte nc?

Anonymous said...

the phrase "winter weather may be on the horizon for good this time" means winter is over. ohh wait when did it start.

sorry to be so negative but ever since this fall a majority of the forecasts from everyone have been wrong. and the famous winter will be here in the beginning, middle, end of the next month is really grinding my gears. ffs no forecast is accurate over 48 hours out. hard to believe considering its 2012.

roadruner said...

I knew it I had this pointed out to my friends and said IF WE HERE IN TORNADO ALLEY. Don,t get cold quick that this sping storm season would be DEVASTATING. OH my Andrew DEEP DOWN IN MY GUT I KNEW IT. I went to Joplin last year we don't need this to happen again PHOTOS don't do it justice seeing it first hand is the real deal. OH MY LORD PLEASE NO. We have to get and stay cold now or the central part of the country will be torn off the map.

Anonymous said...

So is winter done or is winter goign to last into march? I am confused.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Could panhandle hook systems start to form if this pattern would take hold? We have not had any yet this winter season.Amazing isn't it?

Anonymous said...

Still going with that pattern change lol. Only the 5th time or so this winter. Was middle 60's in Missouri like 2 days ago. lolololol. Wish winter could come back but I'm very skeptical. I don't see any major winter storms after this storm this weekend and my area needs a major major winter storm to be anywhere near average for the season.

Andrew said...

Eddie: It means winter is yet to come for some areas.

Eastern WX: I am doing fine, I hope you are as well!

Anonymous: That remains yet to be seen.

Anonymous #2: The Pattern has already changed in the middle of January. Now it's a matter of waiting for the atmosphere to get in gear.

Anonymous #3: That is yet to be seen.

Mike: Yes on both counts.

Anonymous #4: As I said to Anonymous #2, the pattern has already changed. We just need it to get in gear.

roadruner said...

Andrew. I do want to say you are Great at the winter maps and I WANT TO SAY I AM SORRY IF I SEEM TO BE NEGATIVE. Igrew up in S, Dakota and even they aren't getting very cold. Its every where we have Gary Lezack here in Kansas city and he said this is the warmest winter here in Kansas City (or one of the warmest) since 1918 W,O,W even the LRC has been off by 10 days. ON EACH STORM. We are to get 2 inches of Rain here in Kansas City this week end ooo we need it BAD. Is there a slight chance that this pattern continue or is there a Very Good chance that the later half of winter is just tha WINTER I see the way poss, PNA and the NEG Ao and now the Neg Nao It should be getting cold the word is SHOULD Iam sure this pattern has been PERPLEXING to say the least, well I,ll stop typing and I,ll wait for a response. Again YOUR DOING A WONDERFUL JOB.

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew, I love winter weather but i have to say ohio will never see a major snowstorm this year probably. Odds are really good said a local weather guy Said but i willing to believe he is probably right. Cold air just isnt around. With that said I will be back to read your blog come spring. Thanks for all you do Andrew.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Anonymous.Your probably right about what the local meteorologist said about a major snowstorm this winter.

Andrew said...

Roadruner: It was not interpreted that you were being negative. I think there is a 20-50% chance that the pattern will continue to change.

Anonymous and Mike: Climatologically, it is extremely unfavorable to not get a snowstorm. While this winter has been anything but normal, I believe your area will still get a good snow.