Discussion-
A 30% chance of severe weather on the Day 3 forecast is very concerning in my eyes. Frankly, I worry that this may very well end up like today, especially with the way the slight risk is angled in comparison to what has evolved today.
The 12z NAM is printing EHI values conductive for tornadoes to once again start in Oklahoma and Arkansas before moving into Tennessee/Kentucky and Indiana. This does mean that the threat may be slightly further north. There should not be much of a cap over the area that could prevent storms, so any that do fire would easily break any cap that would be present, as per the 12z NAM. Instability should be edging up around 2000 j/kg, which combined with moderately high EHI values, could easily make for a dangerous situation.
An even more concerning piece is the available shear, with SFC (surface) to 700mb level shear exceeding 50 knots, which is fairly high- about as high as what was forecasted for today. Shearing closer to the surface appears to be less of an issue, which would be a good thing for those fearful of tornadoes.
Helicity in general, not accounting for instability, will be pretty high and will be something to watch.
The GFS also appears to indicate something will be firing, but because the GFS is not equipped with the same indices as the NAM, I cannot determine if the GFS sees the threat better or worse than the NAM.
This whole deal is pretty eerie, as a lot of similar features appear to be coming extremely similarly together as they have with today's severe weather outbreak. This will certainly be interesting.
Here's my long range look at the tornado threat.
Any questions can be asked below.
-Andrew
2 comments:
HELLO ANDREW.I THINK YOUR RIGHT.SPRING HAS SPRUNG!I DON'T SEE ANYMORE SNOWSTORMS THIS YEAR FOR THE OHIO VALLEY,NORTHEAST,AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.NOT THE RIGHT PATTERN.
Hello Mike. All I see in terms of for the Ohio Valley and Northeast in terms of snow is a little clipper for Sunday/Monday. After a brief cool shot I agree, spring has sprung. Severe weather just decided to spring a little early. This winter has been horrible for all of us. At least next winter looks better. Enjoy the severe weather season and stay safe, Mike. Have a great night!!! Andrew, with the way this severe season has started I am thinking we are going to be very busy. Several moderate risk days and we are not even through February. Thanks for getting the word out early. Saving lives is what the job is all about. Have a great night, Andrew!!!
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