Sunday, February 5, 2012

Tropical System 90L

We are watching invest 90L currently near the Yucatan Peninsula as indicated by satellite imagery.

Invest 90L has formed in the Caribbean region at this time. Current indications are that wind speeds are at around 25 knots.
Not anticipating storm system to form from this. At best, could see subtropical storm Alberto form from this, but I believe the chances of this occurrence are fairly low at this time.
Current indications are that shearing is around 20-30 knots near the system. This shear should not beat on the system too much, but may be enough to hamper development into a subtropical storm (STS). Dry air indices are unimpressive, with some dry air to the west of this system in the Gulf of Mexico. With the current projections going through Florida this dry air should not impact the storm too badly, if at all. As mentioned previously, wind shearing should not be a problem, and this is confirmed by analysis of upper level and lower level wind comparisons.
Models are projecting invest 90 to go through Florida and the likely go full power towards Greenland. The lack of dynamic models isn't giving me much to look at, model wise.
I'm calling for the storm to move through Florida after gathering itself for a few days. I find the potential for tropical storm formation on the lower end.

And the wild 'winter' of 2011-2012 continues...


ERN WX said...

It would be wonderful to se this become a tropical storm and phase with an Alberta clipper. All it would need to do do is stay 255 miles off the East coast. Ride straight up!!! Almost like a NorIda.

Anonymous said...

Andrew are you religious? It doesn't at all change my opinion of you, I think you are an excellent forecaster, I have just been thinking about the existence/nonexistence of god. Thanks! Other people can answer too if they like.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: I do have a religious background but prefer not to share it on this blog.