Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Glance at the Lezak Recurring Cycle

A system I like to use is the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC. Basically, it indicates a cycle starts in early winter that will cycle over and over again between a 45-60 day period. It can range from a very wet pattern to multiple drought-like weather scenes in the cycle. The cycle is different every year, and the time it takes to make a full cycle varies, but typically falls between 45-60 days.

The LRC was present in the winter when the warm temperatures kept cycling over and over again through the winter months. Now, with records broken in the last couple weeks, it has definitely been proven to be part of the LRC.

Now, if we follow the LRC through the rest of spring, here is what I believe we will come up with:
•A continuation of very warm, if not record breaking, temperatures.
•Many more opportunities for severe weather, mainly focused in the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley.
•Speed Bumps of cooler air, soon filtered back into warmer spells.

Now, the reason I am concerned for more severe weather opportunities is because the deep, negative tilted storm systems that recently tore up the Plains are embedded in the LRC, meaning that, in due time, they will come back again- possibly with some more vengeance as spring gets fully underway.

Another interesting piece- Gary Lezak, who created the LRC, recently wrote a comparison to January 17 and March 2 in terms of the tornado events.
Using those two dates on a 45-50 day cycle, it would be reasonable to think that the next potentially major outbreak would fall on a Mid April timeframe.

Here's a link to the Accuweather Forums' own LRC thread, containing a lot of the information I use to learn about the LRC.


1 comment:

ERN WX said...

Hello, Andrew. How are you doing? I am doing fine. I am also going to a conference tomorrow! It looks like the warm pattern in the Northeast is going to get crushed by the -NAO! I think we might even get more snow! Easter will probably be 40F and light snow for my area! JK! Now onto the severe wx problem... LRC is one of my favorite forecasting factors. It is scary what it is indicating. I was hoping for a few good tstms today, all i got was a few shwrs. I am getting bored. Snow would liven things up!!!!!!!!! Also I am worried about a drought I suspect is coming. It is really getting dry. Take care, Andrew!