Tuesday, March 27, 2012

**UPDATED** Spring-Summer Tornado Forecast 2012

Hello everyone, I'm here to present to you the Updated Spring-Summer Tornado forecast.
Already this year, there have been deaths and horrible occurrences of very strong tornadoes. In a very similar situation where fall can determine winter, I believe late winter can determine spring. If this is true, we are in for a very rough ride.

The chart above shows average tornado reports through the first half of the year. Also superimposed are the long range trend for tornadoes as well as 2012's tornado reports. As you can see, the tornado season of 2012 is already way above the average trend, and it's not even April!

I believe that warm weather will continue to flourish this spring and summer and make for above average temperatures. This tells me that a ridge will be in place over the East US. If that happens, storm systems may sweep south through the Southwest and eject into Texas and make for some severe weather. I also see the potential for storm systems to eject into the North Plains and hit the Plains and Midwest with some severe weather when warm air is not overwhelming the country.

Here's my outlook for the rest of the tornado season. I feel that an already warmer-than normal Gulf of Mexico along with a more active jet stream helped in part with the cool Upper Level Lows that will charge through the Southwest and into the Plains will greatly contribute to a sizable tornado threat, mainly centered in the Southern Plains and into parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Midwest.



ERN WX said...

Thanks for putting this out. The svr season has yet to really get bad. April = dangerous!!

ERN WX said...

Models want to give cool wx (in the long term) for the east coast. The Nao and Ao seem to support this. The problem is the models have been back and forth with the NAo dipping negative. If you believe the GFs at hour 384 12z a bitter cold outbreak will occur for the Northeast. I expect it is way too dramatic. But why not balance record warmth with record cold!!!!! I will go with Henry and not trust ANYTHING beyond 5 days.

ERN WX said...

A little svr wx in Swrn Tx today. A tornado warning was out but hasn't been confirmed attm. Next month I expect a MAJOR tornado outbreak. I am thinking 100+ tornadoes. With that warm Gulf and strong troughs coming in from the west, I think we may deal with something really nasty. This forecast should be taken very seriously.

Anonymous said...

Wow! You were dead on for April!! I'm very impressed...what do you think May will hold for tornadic outbreaks?

Oklahoma City