Sunday, March 11, 2012

Long Range Forecast: Precipitation

Here is the week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom) forecasts from the CFS v2 of precipitation for North America. Unsurprisingly, the Northwest will remain wet as systems continue to crash ashore. Perhaps the most significant parts of this forecast is the dry East and wet South Plains. The dry East US indicates that warm air should continue to be in place with one or a series of ridges of high pressure. The wetness in the Plains indicates where severe weather would strike with any system in the next few weeks.

 For week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom), the colors are less intense as a result of lower confidence as the forecast period increases. However, we can still see dry patches in parts of the East US, again saying that ridges should be fairly common in that area. However, the forecasts are indicating the area of precipitation to move east, meaning that the possible ridges would be losing ground against storm systems.

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