Sunday, March 25, 2012

Storm Prediction Center issues Slight Risk for March 27

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather for parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Midwest regions for March 27.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights a combined 1000-1500 j/kg of instability with veering flow aloft to create a risk for some strong and potentially rotating thunderstorms. More recent returns of the 12z GFS suggest flow veering at 50 knots, increasing the potential for some severe thunderstorms.

Here's the latest 2:00 PM central run of the TRIAD Tornado Model, updated to fix errors.
-Andrew

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

how does your triad model work?

Aran said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Aran said...

I wish it wasn't an isolated threat.Do you think they will put a 30% risk on it in the next few updates into tomorrow afternoon.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: I combine 2 parameters and my own thinking, which in itself can involve several other parameters and factors. From that, I derive a forecast on a chance of tornadoes.

Andrew said...

Aran: A veering flow of 50 knots is certainly something to be watchful of, but due to the isolated nature and somewhat modest instability, I doubt a 30% risk is in the works. You never know, however.

Aran said...

Do you think that by tomorrow morning the risk area of 15% will cover northwest Indiana again?