Saturday, March 17, 2012

Tornadoes, Severe Storms Possible in South Plains Tomorrow

Here's the new 4:00 PM CDT run of the TRIAD Tornado Model. I have extended the threat north, as well as slightly enhance the threat for north central Texas.
However, while I did use the normal model blend for this TRIAD model run, I mixed in the SPC SREF, which is falling into line with the regular models that are used with the TRIAD model.

As the strong storm system ejects eastward, I expect the dry line to be the focus of severe storm development tomorrow. This dryline should be positioned somewhere in west TX/OK/KS. The dry line will be crucial in this situation, as converging winds will likely get the updrafts going when instability values begin to increase over the dry line. As instability increases, updrafts should begin to form and, judging by forecast hodographs and wind shearing, a couple of these updrafts should have the capability to develop some rotation within these updrafts.
As a screaming jet stream with speeds of 100 knots+ moves over these developing updrafts, it will only increase the level of deep layer shear, also increasing the tornado threat and shifting it south and east with time. I expect to see some tornado touchdowns tomorrow, most likely in the central portions of Texas. I find it entirely possible that some tornadic action could develop farther west in Texas than what is currently progged, but due to the uncertainty of the dry line's position and slight uncertainties in the strongest instabilities in that region, I discouraged the TRIAD from stretching the threat too far west.


ERN WX said...

This event looks to be nasty. The SPC might issue a moderate risk for tomorrow and Monday. I'll monitor this situation. Euro wants to bring cold air in for the Eastern part of the country around the end of its 0z and 12z runs. Nao may dip around the same time pd.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew & ERN WX! Looks like we have a long tough road ahead of us through fall in the severe weather department!I knowe it's a LONG way off,but let's hope next winter is full of snowstorms,that's if you like snowstorms.Side note,this is the first winter that I have not got a winter storm to my memory in several years,truly amazing!Take care!

ERN WX said...

Thanks, Mike. I am very sure this winter will be better than last. Take care, Mike and Andrew!