Sunday, April 8, 2012

Regional Severe Weather Outbreak Possible on April 12

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk for 'Day 5', this upcoming Thursday. When the SPC outlines areas this far in advance, it usually means they are expecting something 'big' to happen. Don't hold me to it, however, because forecasts are very much due to change.

Frontal positions for Thursday
A storm system looks to be ejecting into the Northern Plains with a warm front stretched down south into Texas. Those open half circles to the left of the warm front indicate the presence of a dry line, where severe thunderstorms are traditionally formed along a dew point difference, which is the dry line. Now, the dry line is meaningless until the cold front arrives and forces warm air to rise and produce thunderstorms.
Given the tight wind field along the warm front, and hodograph observations from the 6z GFS for this timeframe, this event is likely going to contain some intense supercells with some potential tornadic action.


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