Thursday, April 12, 2012

Significant Tornado Outbreak Potential Rising

Key
Yellow: Some thunderstorms possible.
Orange: Thunderstorms likely, some may be strong to severe.
Red: Severe thunderstorms likely.
Pink: Several intense severe thunderstorms likely- risk of tornadoes and large hail.
Blue: Threat to life and property. Tornado outbreak likely.

I remain very worried about the situation unfolding for Saturday. As you may know, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Saturday. That is 2 days away. The last time the SPC issued a moderate risk for 2 days away was on April 27, 2011. That day ended with several deadly tornadoes.

I am seeing massive shearing and pretty substantial instability combining to make for several tornadic supercells that will, over time, come together and make a squall line that will mainly affect Arkansas eastward, but that is not printed on the above graphic right now.

As we approach the timeframe, expect WRF model graphics to be posted a lot on the Facebook Page.
Stay safe everyone.

7 comments:

ERN WX said...

This is a very concerning matter. I hope people are well prepared. One thing I advise those in the area shown, is you listen to NOAA weather radio and whhen threatening weather approaches, get into your basement or storm shelter. If you do not have a basement or storm shelter, stay with someone who has. Already more than enough people have been killed by tornadoes this year. Please be extra careful. This is a LIFE-THREATENING situation. If a tornado watch is issued stay in your basement. I have seen before my very eyes what tornadoes can do. Please be careful! The Weather Centre and NOAA weather radio are great places to keep informed.

MIKE said...

Agreed ERN WX!It is URGENT those in the mentioned areas need to keep the NOAA all-hazards radio on at night!!!!!!!!

ERN WX said...

The threat will continue into Sunday. More wind than anything else, but tornadoes wil likely occur. PDS's will likely be needed. An upgrade to high risk is going to happen.

ERN WX said...

Unless a good batch of t-storms develop, most of the Mid Atlanic and Northeast won't get much well needed rain. 3 inches would help. On Friday ( tomorrow) if you don't have a basement or storm shelter, if you live in the area currently under a moderate risk (see the Storm Prediction center website to find out if you are) it will be in your life's best interest to go to a place that has one. Your life will be in the balance if you don't. Particularly dangerous situation we are dealing with. Trust me, Andrew will be completely onto this mess.

Anonymous said...

Norman's Hazardous Weather Outlook are calling for damaging straight-line winds at night. Sounds like derecho to me but strong embedded tornadoes still occur. Wichita are calling for strong nocturnal tornadoes. Derechos and long-track tornadoes ARE serious.

Anonymous said...

Not MDT-risk anymore, now officially HIGH risk. High stretches from sc-KS to Norman OK. Mdt covers large portions of KS, most OK, some north TX, some south IA, and some on se-NE and nw- MO. Sunday is supposed to continue with the risk (mdt likely). Sunday will be shifting slightly east. IA could see the biggest.

Aran said...

It is a high with 60% now.