Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Thunderstorm Outlook for Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat

Latest Information
As of now, indications are for a storm system to shift eastward and into the Plains. As this happens, a warm front already extended out ahead of the storm system will shift northward. At the same time, a cold front located west will move east and intercept the dry line in western Texas.
Due to several factors, including a sharp moisture gradient, high shearing levels and moderate instability, this situation has the potential to induce some intense or even tornadic severe thunderstorms.

Here is the thunderstorm outlook, valid April 12-16.

Yellow: Thunderstorms possible.
Orange: Stronger thunderstorms possible- some may become severe.
Red: Severe thunderstorms likely- a few clusters or several single cells are likely.
Pink: Intense severe weather likely- supercells and/or several intense storm clusters likely.
Blue: Catastrophic severe weather likely. Total destruction of some areas likely.

For those wondering:
Models used for this graphic: GFS, HPC Graphics, ECMWF, SPC SREF
(Models are labeled in order of most influence from left to right.)


Aran said...

I like it!

Anonymous said...

What's the word for Monday? Is it still the same as the post from yesterday?

ERN WX said...

This looks nasty. Very busy times ahead.

Aran said...

I like the thunderstorm forecast thing.

mike paulocsak said...

It's going to be interesting how high the cloud tops will get with these thunderstorms!

mike paulocsak said...

Forgot to mention,if the cloud tops are over 50,000 feet,we are talking about some intense thunderstorms.

ERN WX said...

Storm chasers have basically taken that area over!!!!! They help areas that are hit bad.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Because Saturday is now a primary concern, I haven't seen the models enough to know.

Aran: Thanks for your opinion. I appreciate it.

Mike: It will be very interesting!