Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Severe Weather Targets the Plains Tomorrow

General Risk of Severe Weather

Probability of a severe weather event within 25 miles of any point.
The Storm Prediction Center is looking for a potential severe weather event for tomorrow in the Plains, with the most intense storms possibly being located in Nebraska. This comes as strong winds in the atmosphere will likely create some ample shearing opportunities, leading to the potential formation of a mesoscale severe weather event. This more intense area of activity may very well be hampered by the lack of any formidable instability. I will keep watching this situation, but as of now, I cannot say that things are looking all too supportive for a widespread severe weather event.



Eric said...

Hey Andrew! Thanks for the post! I always find them very interesting since weather is what I want to go into after high school. I live in Omaha Nebraska and we have seen some severe weather this season with the April severe weather outbreak and other severe weather events as well. Although tomorow doesnt look too great because of lack of moisture and a very strong cap, I was wondering if this weekend into next week we could see some severe weather chances with a strong ridge of high pressure over the east and a broad trough over the west kind of similair to the april outbreak?

Storm-Chaser Wx said...

Hey, same here to, I would also like to go into weather forecasting as well, and yes it is looking good for the probabilities of TSTM development within the next week or so, but there are some limiting factors to this like placement and timing of the storms, uncertainy of the models, and the determination of dew points, cape values, and whether or not the cap will be strong enough to delay TSTM development or not, but I would hope for such an event so that I could go out and storm-chase, i do like your thinking too.

Andrew said...

Eric: Sorry I didn't respond to your first comment. I think it's great that you and Storm Chaser-WX want to go into forecasting- weather is an amazing topic to learn about. I'm on my phone, so I'm sorry I can't exactly realize the scope of the trough, but a broad trough in the West and ridge in the East may very well ignite some strong storms.

Thanks to both of you for commenting- anyone's input is always appreciated.


Eric said...

I have never been actually storm chasing before, but I definately plan on doing it in the future tho! And yes there is a TON of uncertainty in the latest model run, the National Weather Service continues to change their forecast because of this large uncertainty but it does need watching. Also no problem anytime I look forward to chatting more about weather on your posts!

ERN WX said...

Hello, Eric. Glad to see you and Storm-Chaser Wx want to become forecasters! We certainly want to see more! A great help for anyone who wants to become a meteorologist is interning at the NWS. Storm chasing is a lot of fun and I hope you enjoy it- I expect you will! You are in a great area for storm chasing. And yes, the models have little consistency... I have come close to losing my mind because of that. Take care Eric, Storm-Chaser Wx, and Andrew. Have a great day and enjoy the wx!!!!!!!!!!/ Glad if I can help at all./