Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Bud Poses Threat to Mexico

There is a very strong model consensus for Tropical Storm Bud to make landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, as the above image is showing. The models do have conflicting intensity forecasts, but there is indeed a consensus in the works for landfall.

A strong high pressure system will be positioned in the northern Pacific, keeping Bud from shooting out to sea. This high pressure will keep Bud in the relative location it is in, meaning the only solution is for Bud to shift north and east as it tries to get around the high pressure system but inadvertently makes landfall.

There remains a wide spectrum of potential strengths for Bud to achieve. As of now, the highest would be borderline Category 3 hurricane strength, and the minimum would keep Bud in moderate tropical storm status. The NHC forecast, in black, shows a brief Category 1 hurricane strength. I am thinking that this is a pretty reasonable forecast at this time, and I will have another update tomorrow.


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