Sunday, May 6 Severe Weather Outlook

There is a risk of severe weather for the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest, and Southern Plains into the Arklatex region.

A warm front is expected to pull up warm, humid air from the South and increase instability beyond 3000 j/kg to make for an unstable environment. Lack of shearing will lower the tornado threat, but far northern portions of the risk area may make for a slightly higher threat for rotation in storms. I anticipate the highest instability and dewpoints to be located in the black outlined area, and that should be where storms initiate and are originally the most severe. The biggest risks will be hail and damaging winds.