|Overall Risk of Severe Weather|
|Risk of Hail|
|Risk of tornadoes|
|Risk of damaging winds|
A low pressure system will be stationed in northern Texas, with an occluded front stretching horizontally from central Oklahoma through the Carolinas. As the low pressure center approaches the moderate risk area, a dryline will come out just ahead of the low pressure system. At this point, the front is separating cold and warm air, and the dry line is separating dry and humid air. That makes 2 boundaries separating all types of air masses. Needless to say, that will spark a severe weather event.
The proximity of the front and dry line to the low pressure system lead me to believe that any storms that form may be influenced by the low pressure system's wind field, thus possibly enhancing the risk for tornadoes.
|Valid 8:00 PM CDT|
I used this graphic after comparing its forecasts for now to what was actually happening now, as this ensemble member ran at 0z.
Chase Spot: Weatherford, Oklahoma