Saturday, June 23, 2012

Invest 96 May Become Debby This Weekend in Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center, or NHC, has placed a system in the Gulf of Mexico at a 90% chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Satellite imagery indicates clouds beginning to show signs of wrapping around a center, with outer cloud bands beginning to form in Georgia.
Considering that the strongest convection is located in the eastern part of the storm, with little or no convection on the western portion, we will need to have convection either bloom or significantly wrap around a central low pressure area to have the system develop a hurricane eye and strengthen properly as a tropical cyclone.

A glance at the tropical models suite reveals a very split decision, with some models hitting Florida, some hitting Texas, and some just wandering the system around the Gulf of Mexico. Looking individually at the models, the CMC has changed to hitting Louisiana, after hitting Texas for 4 consecutive runs. Whether this Louisiana scenario remains possible will have to be seen in the 12z model run. The ECMWF keeps consistent with a Texas/Mexico border hit, making that the 3rd consecutive time that scenario has been shown by the ECMWF.

I'm not willing to put in an opinion right now due to the volatility of the models right now, but will continue updating on the system.


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